Quand une action leader bouge, le signal se propage à travers les fournisseurs, clients et valeurs de moyenne capitalisation sur plusieurs jours.
NVIDIA (NVDA) Cascade de résultats
8 étapes · 3 événements historiques
Flux de cascade
NVIDIA's data-center guidance is the single most important demand signal for AI chips, HBM memory, and advanced packaging.
SK Hynix is NVIDIA's primary HBM supplier; NVIDIA's demand outlook directly dictates SK Hynix HBM revenue expectations.
Micron's HBM3e ramp is gated by NVIDIA orders; strong NVIDIA guidance validates Micron's HBM revenue trajectory.
TSMC fabricates all NVIDIA GPUs; higher NVIDIA volume means higher utilization of 3nm/5nm and CoWoS packaging capacity.
Sustained GPU demand growth implies TSMC needs more EUV capacity, supporting ASML's order backlog.
Equipment spend follows 1-2 quarters behind foundry utilization; NVIDIA strength signals future AMAT orders.
Memory capex recovery (driven by HBM demand) flows to Lam's etch-heavy memory equipment business with a lag.
Process-control spending is the last equipment budget to move, but rising complexity at 3nm lifts KLA's content per wafer.
Cas historiques
Déclencheur
NVIDIA FY24 Q4 earnings: data-center revenue +409% YoY, guided Q1 to $24B vs $22B consensus
Mouvement du leader:
NVDA +16.4% on earnings dayRésultat de la cascade
SK Hynix +8% in 2 days, TSMC +5% in 3 days, ASML +4% over the week. SOX index +6% in 5 sessions.
Déclencheur
NVIDIA FY25 Q1 earnings: revenue $26B (+262% YoY), announced 10:1 stock split
Mouvement du leader:
NVDA +9.3% after hoursRésultat de la cascade
Micron +6% next day on HBM optimism. TSMC +3%. Equipment names (AMAT, LRCX) each +4% within the week.
Déclencheur
NVIDIA FY25 Q4 earnings: data-center revenue $35.6B, Blackwell ramp confirmed ahead of schedule
Mouvement du leader:
NVDA +4.2% (modest given elevated expectations)Résultat de la cascade
SK Hynix +5%, Micron +3% on HBM3e validation. Equipment names lagged as capex timing questions persisted.
Statut actuel
Aucune cascade active détectée. Le prochain déclencheur potentiel est la publication des résultats de NVDA. Surveillez les changements de perspectives ou les signaux d'avertissement.
ASML (ASML) Cascade de résultats
6 étapes · 2 événements historiques
Flux de cascade
ASML's EUV order book is the earliest signal of foundry and memory fab investment plans 12-18 months forward.
ASML orders confirm capex cycle strength, directly implying demand for AMAT's complementary deposition and etch tools.
Lam's etch business is tightly correlated with fab starts that ASML orders foreshadow.
Rising wafer starts mean more inspection and metrology demand; KLA benefits from increased complexity at advanced nodes.
TSMC is the largest EUV buyer; strong orders confirm TSMC's expansion plans are on track.
Samsung's foundry and memory capex plans are validated by overall industry equipment spending trends.
Cas historiques
Déclencheur
ASML Q4 2023 orders of EUR 9.2B crushed EUR 3.6B consensus — largest order quarter ever
Mouvement du leader:
ASML +9.7% on earnings dayRésultat de la cascade
AMAT +5%, LRCX +6%, KLAC +4% within 2 days. TSMC +3% as capex cycle confirmation spread through the sector.
Déclencheur
ASML Q3 2024 bookings disappointed at EUR 2.6B, well below expectations; China restrictions cited
Mouvement du leader:
ASML -15.6% (leaked a day early)Résultat de la cascade
AMAT -5%, LRCX -6%, KLAC -4% same day. TSMC initially dipped -2% but recovered after its own strong earnings.
Statut actuel
Aucune cascade active détectée. Le prochain déclencheur potentiel est la publication des résultats de ASML. Surveillez les changements de perspectives ou les signaux d'avertissement.