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NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings-Kaskade
8 Schritte · 3 historische Ereignisse
Kaskadenfluss
NVIDIA's data-center guidance is the single most important demand signal for AI chips, HBM memory, and advanced packaging.
SK Hynix is NVIDIA's primary HBM supplier; NVIDIA's demand outlook directly dictates SK Hynix HBM revenue expectations.
Micron's HBM3e ramp is gated by NVIDIA orders; strong NVIDIA guidance validates Micron's HBM revenue trajectory.
TSMC fabricates all NVIDIA GPUs; higher NVIDIA volume means higher utilization of 3nm/5nm and CoWoS packaging capacity.
Sustained GPU demand growth implies TSMC needs more EUV capacity, supporting ASML's order backlog.
Equipment spend follows 1-2 quarters behind foundry utilization; NVIDIA strength signals future AMAT orders.
Memory capex recovery (driven by HBM demand) flows to Lam's etch-heavy memory equipment business with a lag.
Process-control spending is the last equipment budget to move, but rising complexity at 3nm lifts KLA's content per wafer.
Historische Fälle
Auslöser
NVIDIA FY24 Q4 earnings: data-center revenue +409% YoY, guided Q1 to $24B vs $22B consensus
Leader-Bewegung:
NVDA +16.4% on earnings dayKaskadenergebnis
SK Hynix +8% in 2 days, TSMC +5% in 3 days, ASML +4% over the week. SOX index +6% in 5 sessions.
Auslöser
NVIDIA FY25 Q1 earnings: revenue $26B (+262% YoY), announced 10:1 stock split
Leader-Bewegung:
NVDA +9.3% after hoursKaskadenergebnis
Micron +6% next day on HBM optimism. TSMC +3%. Equipment names (AMAT, LRCX) each +4% within the week.
Auslöser
NVIDIA FY25 Q4 earnings: data-center revenue $35.6B, Blackwell ramp confirmed ahead of schedule
Leader-Bewegung:
NVDA +4.2% (modest given elevated expectations)Kaskadenergebnis
SK Hynix +5%, Micron +3% on HBM3e validation. Equipment names lagged as capex timing questions persisted.
Aktueller Status
Keine aktive Kaskade erkannt. Der nächste potenzielle Auslöser sind die NVDA-Quartalszahlen. Achten Sie auf Prognoseänderungen oder Vorankündigungssignale.
ASML (ASML) Earnings-Kaskade
6 Schritte · 2 historische Ereignisse
Kaskadenfluss
ASML's EUV order book is the earliest signal of foundry and memory fab investment plans 12-18 months forward.
ASML orders confirm capex cycle strength, directly implying demand for AMAT's complementary deposition and etch tools.
Lam's etch business is tightly correlated with fab starts that ASML orders foreshadow.
Rising wafer starts mean more inspection and metrology demand; KLA benefits from increased complexity at advanced nodes.
TSMC is the largest EUV buyer; strong orders confirm TSMC's expansion plans are on track.
Samsung's foundry and memory capex plans are validated by overall industry equipment spending trends.
Historische Fälle
Auslöser
ASML Q4 2023 orders of EUR 9.2B crushed EUR 3.6B consensus — largest order quarter ever
Leader-Bewegung:
ASML +9.7% on earnings dayKaskadenergebnis
AMAT +5%, LRCX +6%, KLAC +4% within 2 days. TSMC +3% as capex cycle confirmation spread through the sector.
Auslöser
ASML Q3 2024 bookings disappointed at EUR 2.6B, well below expectations; China restrictions cited
Leader-Bewegung:
ASML -15.6% (leaked a day early)Kaskadenergebnis
AMAT -5%, LRCX -6%, KLAC -4% same day. TSMC initially dipped -2% but recovered after its own strong earnings.
Aktueller Status
Keine aktive Kaskade erkannt. Der nächste potenzielle Auslöser sind die ASML-Quartalszahlen. Achten Sie auf Prognoseänderungen oder Vorankündigungssignale.